.

In Focus (Archive)

CEEA Patners

Analysis

Who is the president of France in 2012?


January 05, 2012

For the fifth and the last time, the French president Nicolas Sarkozy addressed a speech to the French on Saturday evening 31/12/2011, in the occasion of new year`s, he talked about the coming challenges that will face France, when the attention are on the presidential election which begins its first session after more than a hundred days. The French president promised to apply new reforms would lift the country out of economic stagnation case, noting that France will witness significant changes during the next year. Sarkozy`s promises came in a televised speech to the French people on the occasion of the New Year, when he confirmed its intention to lift the country out of economic crisis during the next four months before the presidential elections, warning that the crisis which considered the worst since world war II- will continue its impact on the French people during the year. He also expressed his desire that the imposed taxes on imported goods contribute in the financing of social welfare programs currently funded by the imposed taxes on the company and income tax, stressing that the only way to maintain the sovereignty and stability of the country is to “choose the path of structural reforms, rather than spontaneous behavior that will lead only to confusion and chaos, without the recuperation of confidence”. Sarkozy was clear in the diagnosis of the size of dangers that the country facing it says that “the destiny of France may be changed again by going out of the crisis, there are some challenges wait us like building a new model of growth, and the birth of a new Europe”. He said in a tone with some pessimism that what`s happening in the world threatens that 2012 will be the year of risks, and opportunities at the same time, which requires for maintain hope and face the challenges, according to his words. Till now, Sarkozy has not announced his candidacy to win a second term of five years; however his launching the next electoral competition is beyond doubt. According to close sources of the presidential palace, Sarkozy will announce formally his candidacy in next February, which leaves to him less than three months to convince the French to prefer him on his socialist concurrent Francois Hollande. Sarkozy took a team work that occupies in the development of his presidential program under the supervision of the minister of agriculture Bruno Le Maire. And he prompted the Union for a Popular Movement of the centre-right political party managed by the executive general secretary the deputy Jean-Francois Cope, and he activated the economy, media, regulators, and popularity sectors, which he can be relied on until all the frames are ready for this decisive moment. But Sarkozy will begin his new battle in a bad political situation, and the clearest evidence of it is the decline in his popularity with voters, according to last survey conducted for the newspaper “la Croix”, which showed that only 38 per cent of French people have a good impression of him, the survey said that in life issues which is primarily of interest to the French, such as unemployment, high cost of living, quality of life, and the future of social welfare systems, the confidence of the voters go toward the socialist candidate. Thus, all the surveys conducted during the last month, reported the progress of Francois Holland on Sarkozy in the first session (about 30 per cent against 24 or 25 per cent) and the great victory in the second session ( more than 56 per cent). First Sarkozy suffers from the increasing of competing candidates from within the Right and the Center candidates, where the candidate of the Right is the ex-prime minister Dominique de Villepin, the ex-defense minister Herve Morin, and the ex- minister of family affairs Christine Boutin. Although none of these may exceed the level of support for more than five per cent, they are distracting the sound of the Right, and practically denied the outgoing president from reaching the second stage in a comfortable location when an active and unanimous dynamic made around him and help him to win the presidential job. Sarkozy suffers also a competition with two other candidates one in main Center and the other on the Extremist Right Party of the political map, in the Center the star of the candidate of the democratic movement party Francois Bayrou came back to shine after the decline of five years, since the last presidential election in 2007.Till now, Bayrou who calls for a government over parties and includes the different currents to face the acute crisis in the country,came to the threshold of 11-12 per cent. However its own expectations stating that he is able to progress to 15 per cent. Bayrou focuses his campaign on attacking Sarkozy and the outcome of his 5 years in office, and defends“intermediate” positions, therefore he disturbs the current confused president between approaching of the Center proposals advocated by Bayrou, looking to attract his voters or to approach the agreements posed by the Extremist Right Party represented by the National Front candidate Marie Le Pen. The latter occupies the third place (after Holland and Sarkozy) in the survey, which give her currently about 15-16 per cent of the votes in the first session, Marie Le Pen dreaming of reproducing what her father Jean-Marie Le Pen did in 2002, when he ranked the second in the first session of the presidential election to lose the second facing the ex-president Jacques Chirac. However, the murder of the current president is in the miserable economic situation defined by France and it has many indicators. On one hand the unemployment rate rose to 9.3 per cent, which affects today about 3 million persons and it`s is the worst result for France from more than a decade and according to the economic outlook, unemployment is expected to rise in the coming months, especially that many large and medium companies announced plans to release thousands of employees. And the raise of unemployment is associated with the decline in the purchasing power of the French, the decline of social services, increasing in the level of taxes, and increasing imbalance in the trade balance. And because of all the negative indicators, France is coming to lose it first taxonomic class in the international agencies, which has become taken for granted. Although the French president can say that the responsibility belongs to the global crisis, not because of his administration of the country, so he needs almost a miracle to turn the political balance in his favor and win the next election, unless if the socialist candidate committed explicit political mistakes, or proved that he is not an experienced competitor against Sarkozy who is known by his toughness and his great experience.



EVENTS

JanuaryFebruaryMarch
AprilMayJune
JulyAugustSeptember
OctoberNovemberDecember

KEYWORDS

Studies and Research