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Analysis

One year after the beginning of the Arab Revolution


January 23, 2012

The Arab world has seen a rapid developments in 2011 that no one expected either in Arabic or international level, they made even more variables that are happened suddenly and more they put observers and decision-makers in confusion on how to treat these variables? What are its prospects? What is its capacity to meet the needs of people? Who will reap the benefits? And which regimes would be replaced by those that have been overturned? Because the answer to all these questions were difficult and very complicated, Western countries, including France and the Arab countries considered that the change happens, and whatever its results, it must be considered as a positive path towards the consolidation of democracy and get rid of dictatorships and regimes that don`t reflect the pulse of the street and is not able to achieve its goals and aspirations. Everybody had agreed that Arab citizens should go to the street and face the risk of death by security forces that are the regime. However, they suffered from unemployment, poverty and the inability to learn and to have medical care, in addition to the deprivation of freedom of opinion and expression in the media or by the establishment of organizations of civil society. The first spark that started in Tunisia, followed by Egypt, Libya, Yemen and Syria, with the possibility that other Arab countries knows similar incidents in 2012. It was possible that the infection of the change reaches Jordan and Morocco, but which put an ended for this is the leaders of these countries that have rushed to make constitutional reforms that are responding in general to the needs and the aspirations of people. If the characteristics of change are not yet clear in Syria because of the complexity of the situation in the country, where it is likely that the crisis continues throughout the 2012 or more. Other countries have done all they aspired, where the countries of Morocco, Egypt and Tunisia have been new elections, and the Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has agreed to resign, leaving for the active forces in the country, the consultation and negotiation to build a modern constitution and hold new elections, Colonel Muammar Gaddafi has been murdered, and the interim National Council take the management of country affairs for the reconstruction of a modern country. But does that mean that the Arab world in 2012 will start a beginning of rise to the level of ambition and those countries that have seen variables are entered in dark tunnels where it is difficult to get up until now? The answer to this question requires, examining the reality of each country separately from those who moved under the “Arab spring”. • Syria passes today in complex and mysterious circumstances, where the opposition is united and clear in its political project, except that it requires abandoning the regime without knowing who the alternative is and what is its transformation agenda. Moreover, the opposition is not able so far to resolve the battle in their favor, because the army is still loyal to the regime and the main categories in civil society, industrialists and traders in addition to the public of ruling party and what it is like the security services. We can`t lose sight here on this important and dangerous is the beginning of sectarian wars, even if it is still small, but the situation continues like this for the award in 2012 with the great wars. • Syria is passing today in complex and mysterious circumstances, where the opposition is united and clear in its political project, except that it requires abandoning the regime without knowing who the alternative is and what is its transformation program. Moreover, the opposition is not able until now to resolve the fight on their behalf, because the army is still loyal to the regime and the main categories in the civil society, industrialists and traders in addition to public of the ruling party and what is there as the security services. We cannot lose sight here on this important and dangerous issue that is the beginning of sectarian wars, even if it`s still small, but the situation continues like this in 2012 for the award of the great wars. The international factor intervenes and the issue becomes more complex, where the United States, the European Union countries, with a group of Arab countries and Turkey, are with the opposition, which, Russia, China and the Group of Arab States (Algeria, Lebanon and Iraq, for example), and Iran, are with the regime provided that it makes reforms. This international conflict may result in 2012: - Whether to extend the duration of the crisis which will be accompanied by liquefaction of the blood, civil, religious and sectarian conflicts. - Whether to divide Syria in sectarian mini-states - Or to agree on a settlement in order that neither the regimes remain in power and nor the opposition hold its control only. - Or a regional war which leads the situations of the Middle East to a dangerous and unpredictable unknown. • In Libya, it seems that the change that happened have been caused internal conflicts and disagreements over the division of "cheese" between the Libyan side, where there are fundamentalist parties, and other liberal, and forces of Arab nationalism, and some remains of the old regime, without being are unconscious of the complexity of the structure of the population and that the tribes and clans as an influence. Consequently, any political identity will be the future of Libya? What will be the nature of the next regime? • In Tunisia, the legislative elections were held and it was agreed to name the President of the Republic and the Prime Minister, but the path of the new political regime go towards the adoption of Islam as a source of legislation in the presence of a liberal force which was and is always looking to build a secular regime. • In Egypt, the elections have produced a regime of Islamic identity is similar to that made in Tunisia, and are based on the same legislative source and to the same ideological orientation. Is the regime would be able to manage the affairs of the country, in presence of popular currents and conflicting policies? Is the army will be able to maintain the civil peace or there is a tendency to marginalize its role, especially that we have seen recently the civil disobedience movement against the military council and against its continuity to keep the control of the power. • In Yemen, We can`t say that the crisis is over, but that it just started because of many challenges which are: - What is the role of the tribes which have been long essential in the structure of any regime that reigned in Yemen and what are the possibilities of understanding between the tribes on a regime that represents and preserves its status and its role? - What is the future of South Yemen and the mobility that reigned, especially that the leaders of this party have already announced they have stopped their movement calling for the separation of northern Yemen after the fall of Ali Abdullah Saleh? - What is the role of the Houthis who haven`t been in peace with the successive authorities? - What is the impact of Al Qaeda on the Yemen situation, in particular that it has hidden widely between tribes and in some regions, equipped with financial means and weapon that shouldn`t be neglected? - Finally, what is the form of new regime, and what will be its capacity to absorb this complexity? - About Morocco and its elections that led to the arrival of the fundamentalist organizations that has the same ideology of those who took power in Tunisia and the parliamentary majority in Egypt? Do these variables respond to aspirations of the people that what happened will be a transition to another phase which can produce a new completely different reality? • This fact leads us to other aspects of legitimate issues about the future changes that have happened in some Arab countries, and their capacity to continue their careers in very difficult economic conditions that crosses all these countries without having possibilities that allow it to meet the social, economic, health, education and infrastructure reconstruction challenges, especially as all these countries except Libya don`t have any natural resource. In addition, at regional level, the prevalence of the analysis talks about the role of Turkey which is considered by the United States as an example that should be replicated, and it`s necessary now to give an opportunity to " moderate Islam " to judge and it`s this " moderate Islam "which took power in Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco, and is the candidate to arrive in Yemen and Libya, and it`s the luckiest one to take power in Syria, in case of change. If this moderate Islam represents the Sunni religion, so what is the role of Iran in the region and how the role of Turkey will be accepted under the strong regional and international conflicts in the Middle East? Moreover, what is the destiny of the "Shiite crescent" that talks about some Arab leaders in particular King Abdullah II of Jordan? The Another question is about the role of Israel and the future of peace in the Middle East and the destiny of Camp David Accords with Egypt, and Wadi Araba with Jordan, and diplomatic relations with Tunisia and Morocco? What would be the position of Israel if it would make a war against Hamas in Gaza, according to its classification as a Western "terrorist movement" especially that Hamas is ideologically now with the same majority in Egypt and Libya and the same power in Tunisia and in Morocco? At the international level, we can say that what happened is not an American or foreign plan, but Washington is working on its investment and employment in the service of the project of the Greater Middle East? What are the possibilities of the new Arab regimes to deal with the new U.S. strategy in the region? With regard to Europe, how the European Union will face the Islamist regimes that will be on the other side of the Mediterranean in Morocco, Tunisia and Libya, and it warned yesterday and showed extreme fear of its presence without distinction between fundamentalist political and religious fundamentalism, of evidence of what happened in the Netherlands and Denmark about the drawings of the Prophet and the veil in France and Belgium? Finally, the main issue that remains is what the Arab citizens have won in the countries that have had a change as long as nothing to it until now has changed? And does it will wait a long time to start looking for the way of real change?



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