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Syria towards the long internal war of attrition

February 01, 2012

According to the Security Council`s session fact held in New York on Tuesday, 31.01.2012 in the presence of the Foreign Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem bin Jaber Al Thani, and General Secretary of the Arab League Nabil Al-Arabi we can conclude that the international community is unable to find a solution to the Syrian crisis, which indicates that the Syrian situation is going towards a long internal war of attrition. The International Western-Arab Alliance insists on charging the Syrian regime all the responsibility for spilled blood in Syria, and calls President Bashar al-Assad to hand over the power to his Vice President Farouq al-Chaara in preparation for legislative and presidential elections with the required constitutional amendments, and to adopt many reforms along the lines of the settlement that was reached on Yemen. But The Chinese-Russian alliance, and Syria, Iran, a few Arab countries and some countries in South America, see that the solution is in the negotiations between the regime and the opposition to find a settlement without the requirement to bring down the system and without condemning its repressive practices because the alliance see that this regime is defending the armed groups, which threaten the security of the country and the citizen. With the support of the Western-Arab alliance the decision to impose economic sanctions on Syria if it doesn`t responding to the Arab League initiative and the efforts of Western countries, Beijing and Moscow oppose the imposition of any sanctions and refuse to grant any state the right to a military intervention because it would raise the level of tension and threats the entire region with a severe consequences. The alliance of the pro-Syrian regime will not hesitate to use its veto if it`s necessary, which back the Western - Arabic efforts to zero, and any sanctions will impose on Syria become not comprehensive and don`t have an international consent. So the Western and Arabic measures will be individual on level each country according to what it deems its interests and private benefits. This fact will not prevent the Western-Arab alliance to offer various kinds of support for the opposition, even on the military level, despite the existence of something like a belief in the capitals of Arab and Western that the opposition in its present state is not able to hold power, and that the regime is unable to regain its control over the entire Syrian territory. It therefore seems that Syria is going to a long internal war of attrition accompanied by attack and retreat, and citizen will be sacrificed because his life him will be threatened, especially because Syria is suffering an economic crisis due to a decline in commercial exchanges, and the reduction in quantities of oil for export, and the fall in the exchange rate of Lira, and the decrease in the levels of central bank reserves of foreign currencies. It is noted here that the international community divided on how to deal with the Syrian issue, doesn`t do that because it loves this country, but because it has interests that must be made by each party to take the appropriate position. Washington, Paris, London and Berlin make a business of human rights in the Arab world and claim that they are concerned about its interests, rights and freedom of expression, and food to hide behind this other objectives that are most important to them, and primarily, it do to detached the link from Syria to Iran and how to prevent Damascus to play the role of supporting Hamas and Hezbollah, and push Syria to sign a peace agreement with Israel under the conditions of the latter. About Moscow and Beijing, they defend Syria not because they like the Syrian regime, but because Syria is the last bastion for Russia to maintain its position in the Middle East after losing all countries facing the basin of the Mediterranean, after becoming the weaker in the part of Israeli-Arab peace and, after releasing from the Arab spring countries, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Yemen, with no clearance or gain. This is how the Syrian crisis has become an international crisis and it is an internal crisis between the regime and the opposition, and it confirms that the solution cannot be resolved tomorrow, and the game of biting fingers has started and who will lose, will cries first. Regarding the regional and Arab power, its role is clear and he didn`t need a lot of interpretations, where Iran seeks to build an axis that runs from Tehran to Baghdad and Damascus arriving to Beirut and also Turkey is seeking to build an axis that run from Ankara arriving to all Arab countries, in coordination with the Gulf States. And if anyone bet that Moscow and Washington will make a war on the name of others, he is wrong, because the Russian and American strategy now count on "the strategy of velvet" which operates the only politically crises behind the scenes , where the mobility of armies is left for small countries under national, sectarian and denominational headings.




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