In Focus (Archive)


The Syrian crisis has entered an internationalization stage

April 02, 2012

The Syrian crisis has entered in a real paralysis stages of internationalization, and the report of the political future and security of Syria should be decided outside Damascus, which means that it may be extended for a large period that can take years, especially that the Syrian regime cannot impose any solution and the opposition doesn`t have the level to act as an alternative. The Syrian regime considers recently that the security solution works best and can remove armed people, thinking that it`s an individual movement with limited number. Resorting for a choice for the military resolution agrees with the intention to offer promises to make political reforms without a mortgage, in a specified period in order to get the most of the time. The arguments of the opposition are divided between the interior which calls to make serious and quick reforms and ensuring a democratic environment and intellectual pluralism and the elimination of one-party dominance, and between the external that demand the departure of the regime first of all, even if this will be done by international forces or by using weapons, despite the risk of the outbreak of civil war with sectarian dimensions. Despite all attempts, the efforts to unify the rows of the opposition or at least unify their slogans have failed. As it is indicated that any series with limited numbers called itself opposition and introduce itself as an alternative regime, since it`s not known or clear which is the real opposition despite that the “Syrian National Council” is considered until now the largest gathering. In the context of development of events for more than a year, several international projects developed in Syria were discussed, including: - An American project that aims to overthrow the Syrian regime, not to give freedom to the Syrian but rather to keep first of all Damascus away from Tehran and then besieged it, isolate it and prevent it from communicating with its allies of Hezbollah and Hamas. - An Arab project which aims to overthrow the "Royal republics", arriving to make Islamic political systems as a dam in front of the extremist movement and terrorism and in the confrontation of Al-Qaeda and those who looks like it. - A Turkish project which considered that the dominant regime in Ankara is a model and an experience that can be exported which results the position of Turkey in economic and politic levels. - An Iranian project which aims to protect the Syrian regime at any price in a strategic plan that seeks to link Iran to Iraq, to Syria, to Lebanon and to Palestine. - A Russian project that`s looking how to preserve the Syrian regime as an alternative Islamic systems which could spread to Chechnya, and find a place intended for Russian forces in the warm water around naval bases in the Syrian coast and didn`t evacuate the field of Middle East in United States. - A Chinese project that aims to start investing economic power in the international political field, after it seemed that Chinese interests are threatened in more than one region in the world once Beijing and has lost significant petroleum markets in Libya and in the South of Sudan. - A project that includes the Brics countries (Russia, China, Brazil, South Africa and India) and started to take the form of an international coalition that represents 18% of world production and 40% of the population census, which is currently looking for members to join them, such as Syria, Iran, Iraq, and especially that the latter two countries are rich in petroleum. Some of these projects are boycotted, and some of these projects were opposed since their owners speak on behalf of the Syrian opposition and decided its political project or those who speak on behalf of the Syrian regime and determined its steps that must be taken at political and military levels. From here, it is possible to predict that the Syrian crisis may remain for a long time until a settlement, and that after Mr. Putin receives the Russian presidency, and after that President Sarkozy knows his destiny for the second mandate, and after knowing the results of the presidential election of the United States. And meanwhile all this, there will be a lot of waste of blood in Syria.




Studies and Research