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Turkey and Iran: A Forced Marriage


April 12, 2012

Before the outbreak of the Arab revolutions, the analyzes showed a pending strategic alliance that includes Turkey, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon, others saw this alliance as a "historical certainty" and an "existential necessity", but when the wind of the "Arab Spring" has arrived to Damascus, the map of alliances has changed in the Middle East and internationally. So, the Syrian crisis has become captive of international interaction especially between Washington and Moscow, and captive of regional interactions especially between Ankara and Tehran, with the difference that international conflicts have dimensions of interest that can be difficult or resolved, depending on what happens behind the scenes as sale and purchase between the Americans and Russians. But at the regional level, the Turco-Iranian variation regarding the Syrian issue has taken steps that have come to the tension between the two countries and launch permissions that reflect the spirit of hostility on both sides, although the mutual diplomatic or precipitated to absorb the atmosphere before it develops and moves toward confrontation. Turkey has engaged in the project to overthrow the Syrian regime and it can not turn back because she has invested all these papers, and the hope to radically change Syria was the only choice, because Syria is the passage of economic and political Turkish expansion into the Arab region after relations with Iraq worsened and after the Iraqi regime which is protected by Iran has become a barrier to Turkey`s regional ambitions. In addition, there were several factors that were behind the Turkish advance, including the spread of the Turkish-Islamic moderates example after spreading its promises in Tunisia, Egypt and in some extent in Libya where there are conflicts between tribes and disagreements to share power, and its foundation may be long before it took its final form, either for the union of the country or the nature of the regime promised. However, even if Iran calls for reform and change in Syria, but it wants to achieve this under the context of the regime of the President Bashar Al-Assad in order to the relationship between Tehran and Damascus for several decades and because Damascus is the strategic depth of Tehran with what there is as extension of Iran to the Palestinian issue and Hezbollah. We shouldn`t neglect the strong competition in the management of the region between Iran and its Shiite ideology and between Turkey and its Sunni belief, where each one has its legislation and jurisprudence and style of judgment Consequently, the signs of the beginning of the conflict between Turkey and Iran appear after the leak of information on the agreement Iranian - Iraqi - Syrian who opens a land line from these countries as a prelude to open an airline which Turkey is excluded after being the most important military and economic passage exchanges of these countries. The crisis worsened between the two countries following the failure of leaders of both countries to reach a joint decision on how to resolve the Syrian crisis, where each party stands on the edge completely opposite of the other party. The conflict is crowned when Iran put Iraq in a place for private negotiations of the Iranian nuclear issue and that the first round was held in Istanbul, which means denying Turkey to play an important role in a issue that is considered very important on regional and international levels. That`s why, the reaction of Rajab Tayib Ardogan when he described the Iranian people to "no loyalty and honesty," that`s why also the Iranian calls of criticism increased of the Turkish role in the Syrian crisis. Although the Turkish and Iranian diplomacy has rushed to contain the crisis, but it`s doesn`t mean that it has been resolved once for all, because what was hidden under the table rose to the surface. That`s why, it`s probable that relationships see more tensions, although the two countries consider that the time is inappropriate where there are strong business relationships between them arriving at about $ 10 billion, and are on track to increase twice in a few years if there was no rift between them. In addition, Turkey has enough papers for pressure on Iran, including Iranian opposition paper, and Iran has the paper of Iraq and the paper of Kurds and other papers. It seems that it`s not yet the time that`s one of the parties uses its papers, considering that the marriage is still between them even if it`s forced.



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