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An Americano-Russian agreement on a Regulation of Syria

May 21, 2013

The Americans and the Russians have reached an agreement to organize an international conference for dialogue between the Syrian regime and the opposition parties, to be held in Geneva during the month of June, when there are big battles inside Syria.

Under the agreement, Washington was trying to communicate with the Syrian opposition abroad to call in their personal capacity as leaders. Moscow has undertaken to invite the leaders of the opposition inside and in coordination with President Bashar al-Assad to indicate those who represent the regime, personalities that are a challenge to anyone.

It seems that Washington has canceled the former condition was linked by the regime against the announcement of President Bashar al-Assad to his desire to resign and make way for an interim government despite statements launched by President Barack Obama, and those issued from time to time by the Minister of State John Kerry and don’t reflect the reality of what is happening behind the scenes.

It also seems that Moscow is no longer adhere to what President Bashar Al-Assad remains in the plan and convinced Washington that the issue returns to the Syrian people.

The dialogue conference doesn’t mean at all that the Syrian crisis has ended, but it is the beginning of a difficult and fruitless journey, full of traps because the Syrian issue is no longer the king of the regime and the opposition, but there are regional and international interests, each with their own accounts.

In other terms, the parts of the dialogue will be found divided between the two axes, one led by the United States and its allies, and the other led by Russia and its allies.

And what made Washington and Moscow to settle the agreement is the arrival of the two capitals to the belief that neither the Syrian regime nor the opposition is able to resolve the issues in his favor, and more Syrian crisis lasts, the more its light spreads in other countries such as Turkey, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq and some Gulf countries and Iran.

It is certain that the Syrian crisis is not one that has only led Moscow and Washington to understand, no, but there are other issues that may have been exchanged, such as the Iranian nuclear file, the file of peace in the Middle East, the North Korea file and others that will become clearer later.

And of course, there will be no winner in Syria or those with the regime nor the opposition, but Syria as a nation and Syria as a people are the biggest losers in the context of speech on the fall of at least 100 people dead and many injured, and destroy all the infrastructure and most towns and villages.

It is likely that the settlement ends in Syria as it was done in Lebanon after the outbreak of the civil war for 15 years, i.e., the distribution of power along sectarian lines so that it can remain the first Presidency Alawites with the removal of some of the powers of them, give the presidency of the government Sunni opposition and grant the presidency of the parliament to Christians. This may also require the distribution of jobs in the public service, according to the proportion of the population of each doctrine.

It is also likely that Syria imposes conditions of the restructuring of the security forces to restore the army, and the removal of certain information devices, and destruction of chemical weapons if there is.

The solution is of course, not tomorrow. The regulation needs conferences, meetings and summits. Until that regulation, there will be many safe full of death in the Syrian people and the towns and villages will be more destroyed.




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