At the beginning of the outbreak of the "Arab Spring", Turkey seems to be the first to support or to show that the Turkish model is the one all the Arab Spring countries will follow and which shows, according to the Americans, the "moderate Islam" capable of fighting against extremism and intolerance. It is also the alternative for systems that lapsed in more than one country, including Egypt, Tunisia, Libya and Syria.
Many analysts have also said that Turkey has played this role in the Middle East because the Arab countries have withdrawn regionally and internationally.
It seems that the first Turkish Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his successor, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu are the leaders of the political game to the point of determining the fate of any system and drawing the political future, its size and the scope of its effects, and that in coordination with the active Western powers, led by the United States.
But early in the summer of 2013, the role of Turkey began to decline due to a number of changes listed as follows:
1-The Saudi Arabia has taken its leadership role in the region especially since it remained a member of the Arab trinity alongside Egypt and Syria.
2 - The abdication of the Emir of Qatar in favor of his son Tamim and the withdrawal of the powers of the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim who were the supporters of the Arab Spring leader "Ahmed Davutoglu."
3 - The revolt of the majority of the Egyptian against the "Muslim Brotherhood" regime which was fully supported by Ankara.
4 –the occurrence of major events in different regions of Turkey after Erdogan wanted to realize some projects in "Taksim" square in the center of Istanbul.
5 - Increasing tension between Ankara and Baghdad which had negative effects on the Turkish economy and foreign trade.
6 - Kurds in Syria are mobilized to create autonomy and its impact on the future of the Kurds in Turkey.
7-Prudent relationship between Turkey, Russia and Iran because of the Syrian file.
We also cite a number of issues that led to isolate Turkey from its environment and its region; it is in full crisis with Syria, Iraq, Egypt and Saudi Arabia, and in implicit crisis with Kuwait, the UAE, Iran and Russia.
All this occurred at a time when Ankara has failed to convince the EU to join it as a member, following the refusal of several member states including Cyprus and Greece.
After all that was presented, it seems that Ankara has only two items to follow:
- Either that Ankara should review its position and adopt a new, more open policy, as was the case before the outbreak of the "Arab Spring."
- Either to change political leaders and hold new elections for leaders more concerned about the future of Turkey and its interests.
This is, perhaps, what the Turkish people will determine when it is the right time.