.

In Focus (Archive)

CEEA Patners

Analysis

Lebanon: unknown destiny


November 08, 2013

Lebanon is recently living within a resigned government, a parliament which is not meeting, an upcoming presidential election without clear agenda, conflicts between religions and breakage between different partiess, a worsened security situation, an economic regression and a million Syrian refugees on its territory.

This is in brief the situation in Lebanon which is an integral part of the crisis in Syria, as well as his political future which depends on changing circumstances in Syria despite that the majority called Lebanon to be self –distant.

For seven months, MP Tamam Salam was asked to form a new government after the resignation of the government of President Najib Mikati but this failed because the project of forming a government of 8 +8 +8 was refused by the March 8 coalition, which considers the president Salam as an important figure in March 14 coalition . This means that March 8 would have eight ministers and 14 March coalition 10 ministers and MP Walid Jumblatt and President Michel Suleiman six ministers.

March 8 forces have proposed a new equation (9 +9 +6), but this was rejected by 14 March not wishing  to give the blocking third to its opponents, it has added a new condition that Hezbollah withdraws from Syria as prerequisite for joining the government.

Hezbollah responded and Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah said: “we were modest in accepting the equation  of 9+ 9 + 6 but this will not be acceptable later as the axis of opposition triumphed in Syria and this is the last quarter of the battle in Syria before the victory.”

As for parliament, 8 march forces refused to attend any legislative session because the government has resigned,   however, March 14 forces consider that parliament has the right to vote even in this case because previous examples confirm this.

As for presidential election next March, the dispute began now between those who say that half of the deputies +1 have the right to elect a president, and those who say that the election of a new president requires the presence of two-thirds of the Chamber of Representatives. Not to mention that there is no agreement on the name of the president.

At the same time, hardly a day passes without safety incidents, theft, kidnapping or triggering conflicts between families, parties or between communities as is the case in Tripoli, where the situation is so bad.


What makes things worse is that most tensions are sectarian and are taking an ideological character under the influence of what is happening in the wider region, including Iraq, Syria, Egypt and Yemen.

It is natural that this will have its impact on the economy as export routes are closed due to the situation in Syria, and tourists from the Gulf cannot risk their lives and come to Lebanon because the government is not establishing proper taxes due to citizens, and is almost absent in establishing a policy of encouragement to agriculture, industry, trade and tourism.

This miserable situation worsens with more than one million Syrian refugees in Lebanon worsening more social security, economic and safety while the international community sends aid in very small quantities.
 

 This means that the destiny of Lebanon remains unknown, while the citizen is the one suffering and officials are not aware, each side blames the other and considers himself free from responsibility  while all parties contributed  to this destruction.



EVENTS

JanuaryFebruaryMarch
AprilMayJune
JulyAugustSeptember
OctoberNovemberDecember

KEYWORDS

Studies and Research